USD/JPY edged higher to 149.12 last week but reversed from there. Nevertheless, downside is contained above 146.65 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 146.65 will suggest that fall from 150.90 is resuming. More importantly, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 147.12) will argue that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed with three waves up to 150.90. Deeper decline should then be seen to 142.66 support next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
