USD/JPY gyrated in range of 146.20/148.76 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 146.20 will resume the decline from 150.90. More importantly, that would also argue that rebound from 139.87 has completed as a corrective move to 150.90. Deeper fall should be seen to 142.66 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 148.76 will bring another rise to retest 150.90 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
