USD/CAD rebounded strongly after initial dip to 1.3970 last week, but upside is capped below 1.4139 resistance for now. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook stays bullish as rally from 1.3538 is in progress. Break of 1.4139 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3970 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3562) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.90567 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction.
