Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin price rose 1.5% to over $115,000, with onchain indicators suggesting market momentum is picking up.
-
BTC must hold above $115,000 to secure the recovery, with resistance at $116,000-$121,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price was up on Friday, rising 1.5% over the past 24 hours to trade above $115,000. Several technical and onchain indicators suggest the BTC market is “advancing on firmer footing” to higher levels, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin derivatives “set the tone” for BTC price
Bitcoin’s ability to stage a sustained recovery has been curtailed by weak spot demand and softening ETF inflows.
“Attention now shifts to derivatives markets, which often set the tone when spot flows weaken,” Glassnode wrote in its latest Week Onchain report.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s volume delta bias, measuring the imbalance between buying and selling pressure, recovered during the rebound from $108,000, signaling seller exhaustion across exchanges like Binance and Bybit.
Related: Bitcoin‘s ‘supercycle ignition’ hints at $360K: New price analysis
This suggests that futures traders “helped absorb recent sell pressure,” said the market intelligence firm, adding:
“Going forward, the evolution of derivatives positioning will be critical to navigating the market in this low spot-liquidity environment.”
Meanwhile, options open interest (OI) reached $54.6 billion, an all-time high, up 26% from $43 billion on Sept. 1. This reflects growing investor interest in the derivatives market, which can positively affect BTC price.
Note that when options OI reached its previous record high in mid-August, it was accompanied by Bitcoin’s rise to new all-time highs above $124,500.
Additional options OI data shows a clear bias toward calls over puts, “highlighting a market that leans bullish while still managing downside risk,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Both futures basis and options positioning reflect a more balanced structure than in past overheated phases, pointing to a market advancing on firmer footing.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s $4.3 billion options expiry on Friday favors bullish bets, and could open the door for BTC rally to $120,000 as long as the price stays above $113,000.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch next
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price trading at $115,400 after running into resistance around $116,000. The BTC/USD pair must hold above $115,000 for a sustained recovery.
There is a major supply zone stretching from $116,000 to $121,000, which Bitcoin will have to overcome to continue its uptrend toward all-time highs.
Conversely, the bears will attempt to defend the $116,000 level and push the price back down. A key area of interest lies between $114,500, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently sits, and $112,200, embraced by the 100-day SMA.
Another area of importance stretches from the local low at $107,200 (reached on Sept. 1) to the $110,000 psychological level.
Bitcoin is “now pushing to the previous monthly open,” said pseudonymous trader KillaXBT in an analysis on X, referring to the August open around $115,700.
“This is a crucial pivot point in terms of trend direction. We could see some deviation above, as always.”
The BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows the liquidity clusters between $116,400 and $117,000, per data from CoinGlass.
If broken, this level could spark a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to close positions and driving prices toward $120,000.
On the downside, heavy bid orders are sitting around $114,700, with the next major cluster sitting between $113,500 down to $112,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
