GBP/JPY stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further rise is in favor as long as 197.93 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 200.26 will resume the rally from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, however, break of 197.93 support will turn bias to the downside for 195.01 support next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
