Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI has triggered its 9th bullish signal this cycle.
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Analysts see potential upside toward $155,000–$200,000 if history repeats.
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Short-term liquidity pressures and the FOMC decision could drive BTC price volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate above $115,000 as traders brace for the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The immediate resistance for BTC remains between $117,000 and $118,000, and a breakout above this level could signal a major structural shift on higher time frame charts.
Market optimism has been fueled by technical signals. Crypto investor Jelle points out that the weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) has once again turned bullish, a development that has occurred nine times previously in the current cycle. On average, each of these crossovers has triggered a 35% rally, which, if repeated, would lead Bitcoin toward $155,000.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson argues that while he is not a believer in chart-based technical analysis, repeating cycle patterns offer a strong roadmap. Peterson’s model suggests that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 170 days, giving such an outcome better than even odds.
However, short-term price action remains clouded with caution. Analyst Skew highlighted that new ask-bid liquidity (short-positioned) has clustered near $116,000, describing it as the current “consensus trade” ahead of the Fed decision.
Skew said that persistent supply and offloading into rallies show the market remains top-heavy, and warns that this setup may be the result of market maker manipulation rather than organic positioning.
Related: Bitcoin eyes long liquidations as gold passes $3.7K for first time
Markets are split on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects
The broader market narrative shows a divide or thought among traders. Despite expectations of up to three interest rate cuts later this year, Data from CryptoQuant found that eight of ten bull market indicators have already turned bearish, reflecting cooling momentum. That being said, some traders believe the macroeconomic backdrop still favors Bitcoin.
🚨 ALERT: 8 out of 10 Bitcoin bull market indicators have turned bearish, with “momentum clearly cooling,” according to a CryptoQuant analyst. pic.twitter.com/2ioC1b5Oxb
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 12, 2025
RookieXBT emphasized that the dollar Index sits at 15-year support, while equities and commodities signal strength as the S&P 500 has rallied 12% this year to new highs, and gold is up 40% in 2025 after years of stagnation.
Against this backdrop, the trader said that risk assets like Bitcoin could continue benefiting from liquidity growth and economic expansion.
Onchain signals also lean supportive. According to trader Darkfost, short-term holder whales are back in profit after defending the $108,000 to $109,000 zone earlier this month. Similar defenses in the past have often set the stage for a bullish rally, as identified in March and April 2025.
With Bitcoin trading just 8% below its all-time high, the market sits at a crossroads. Whether the latest RSI signal delivers another cycle-defining rally or whether macro headwinds cap momentum, the outcome of this week’s FOMC decision could be decisive.
Related: Bitcoin’s illiquid supply could hit 8.3M by 2032: Fidelity
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
