Bitcoin could be worth half as much as gold by its next halving, slated for 2028, and the recent rise in gold prices would price the cryptocurrency at $644,000 in “equivalent value,” analysts say.
“We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said in an X post on Monday.
Gold futures hit a record high of above $4,000 per ounce as traders rushed to the asset, which has long been seen as a safe haven. Sigel said that its record price “implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per [Bitcoin].”
Crypto analysts have long compared Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, but the latter has outperformed Bitcoin so far this year, rising 50% amid increasing uncertainty over political developments, a weakening US dollar and sporadic US tariffs.
Young investors prefer Bitcoin
Sigel said that younger investors turn to Bitcoin as a store of value, the main use case for which traditional investors would typically turn to gold.
“Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role,” he said.
Analyst Jordi Visser said in June that younger generations believe the financial system “has been worsening every single year,” and their calls for increased public spending could also help to boost Bitcoin’s price.
Gold could go higher from here
Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt said that gold could still have room to run despite hitting a peak high.
“Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction,” Brandt wrote to X on Monday. “How much higher? No clue!”
“But I am quite certain that ‘all-in’ FOMO [fear of missing out] buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future,” he added.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time peak on Monday, reaching above $126,000 for the first time, though Bitcoin critic and prolific gold backer Peter Schiff said that despite Bitcoin’s record peak, “it’s still about 15% below its record high” in terms of gold.
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“Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148K to match its record high priced in gold,” he added.
“I still think it’s too early for Bitcoiners to get excited about the rally. Until Bitcoin can make a new high priced in gold, it’s just a bear market rally,” he said.
However, Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, said that Bitcoin’s “fair value floor has been lifted to $1.34 million” with gold’s rise.
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