Bitcoin may struggle to sustain its upward trend unless something triggers more excitement among investors, according to Glassnode.
“Without a renewed catalyst to lift prices back above $117.1k, the market risks deeper contraction toward the lower boundary of this range,” Glassnode said in a report published on Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around 5% below the $117,000 level, trading at $110,840 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
“Historically, when price fails to hold this zone, it has often preceded prolonged mid- to long-term corrections,” Glassnode said, pointing out the increase in profit-taking among long-term holders in recent times, which may signal “demand exhaustion.”
Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma told Cointelegraph that he expects a “relatively volatile month,” with potential upside ranging from $116,000 to $120,000.
Sideways price action is “likely outcome” after a crash
However, Varma said that while “consolidation is the likely outcome” for Bitcoin following a significant market crash, several indicators still point to potential positive momentum for the cryptocurrency.
“ETFs inflows remain quite high, and spot volume seems healthy,” Hyblock said. Before the wider crypto market crash on Friday, which saw Bitcoin briefly fall to $102,000, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded a nine-day inflow streak, amounting to $5.96 billion in inflows, according to Farside data.
Another potential bullish catalyst is the prospect of continued rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. Rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies, as they prompt investors to shift away from traditional investments like bonds and term deposits, which become less attractive in a lower interest rate environment.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in about a 95.7% chance of another rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 29 meeting.
Other indicators suggest “increasingly constructive” rest of the year
21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena said that with the recent liquidations, policy easing approaching, and structural demand accelerating, the setup into year-end appears “increasingly constructive for digital assets.”
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Mena said Bitcoin is setting up for a potential move toward $150,000 “as macro tailwinds and institutional flows continue to align.”
Meanwhile, other analysts are predicting higher values by year-end. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained market research director Joe Burnett are forecasting a price of $250,000 by the end of 2025.
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